Apologies for the long delay, been travelling and settling in overseas. But without further ado, let’s take a quick look at what the summer months ahead have historically brought to us in equities both domestically and abroad, when you look at history over the last 50+ years. Since June is creeping to a close, and summer officially has only just started we will call the monthly returns of July, Aug and Sept “summer”, especially since these are the next 3 months on investors’ calendars and minds.
Looking at monthly data, the next 3 months have been pretty unimpressive from a return perspective whether you park your money at home or abroad, as you can see in the chart below. Investing in the US over the next 3 months has historically resulted in a loss of 42 bps, most of which comes in Sept. Similarly if you go abroad, like I have, and invest there, like I won’t, over the next 3 months, you returns are worse—an 82 bps loss.
By contrast, these are your returns for the rest of the calendar year. Whether you invest your money in the US or abroad you have historically made about 6.3%, as you can see below.
So what’s this lesson in all this? If you believe in seasonality, then don’t worry about the market in the US or abroad, and come back and invest Sept 30th. Go on vacation, enjoy yourself.